Active cases to drop to 22K mid-Nov if health protocols followed

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire (File photo)

MANILA – The country could see its active cases dropping to about 22,000 by November 15 if the situation further improves, coupled with the public's continued compliance with minimum public health standards, the Department of Health (DOH) said Saturday.

"If the situation improves, we can go as low as 22,000 active cases for the whole Philippines by the end of November 15. So ang panawagan sa kababayan natin ay tuloy-tuloy ang pagsunod sa minimum public health standards (upang) hindi magkaroon ng pagtaas ng kaso pagdating ng kapaskuhan (so we appeal to our citizens to follow religiously the public health standards so that our cases would not increase this Christmas)," Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said in the weekly Laging Handa program.

The projection was based on the calculation by a DOH team that conducts the feasibility analysis of syndromic surveillance spatio-temporal epidemiological modeler (FASSSTER).

Vergeire said the 22,000-case projection could be achieved if the country maintains the reduced mobility and the slow interval from infection detection to isolation.

However, she warned this could still reach up to 52,393 if the mobility level rises.

The country's current mobility is at 82 percent while the detection-to-isolation period is five days.

While the National Capital Region has been placed under the more relaxed Alert Level 2 classification, Vergeire assured the public that safeguards are still in place.

"Hindi naman po siya naging biglaan. We were still able to monitor itong sitwasyon sa Metro Manila. Nagkaroon lang ng ibang timeline ang pagde-deklara ng panahon para sa NCR (The shift was not sudden. We were still able to monitor the situation in Metro Manila, the timeline for our declaration only changed)," she said.

Vergeire noted that the decision to ease restrictions in the region was based on different metrics.

"Nakita natin na since last week or two weeks ago bumababa na 'yong health care utilization (sa Metro Manila) at sa ngayon less than 50 percent ang kanilang occupied beds (We saw that since last week or two weeks ago, our health care utilization had been decreasing. Now the occupied beds are less than 50 percent)," she said.

The Philippines' active cases stand at 37,377, at least 7,161 of which are in Metro Manila. (PNA)

Source: Business Diary Philippines

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